Can Exchange-Traded Funds Boost Ripple’s Value by 1,500%?
The XRP price forecast indicates a potential 1,500% increase if the SEC grants approval for an ETF. Could Ripple finally hit $27 and overcome resistance?
Ripple’s Turbulent Journey
Ripple (XRP) has gone through a tumultuous journey recently, grabbing market attention due to significant price volatility and notable regulatory changes.
On January 16, the token climbed to a multi-year high of $3.39, driven by robust market sentiment. However, this surge was fleeting.
As of February 17, XRP has retreated to $2.68, reflecting a 21% drop from its January peak. It still stands around 31% below its all-time high of $3.89, achieved in January 2018.
Despite this downturn, XRP ranks among the top-performing assets within the top 100, yielding an impressive 145% return over the past 90 days. This performance exceeds that of larger assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), both of which have seen declines during the same timeframe.
Amid these fluctuations, wider market dynamics are also influencing XRP’s trajectory. The election of President Donald Trump fostered a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S., with his administration’s positive outlook on digital assets boosting investor morale. This shift has facilitated the upward movement of various crypto assets, including XRP.
Furthermore, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has sparked increased optimism, as many in the market foresee a more favorable regulatory landscape under interim chair Mark Uyeda’s leadership.
With a combination of dynamic price movements, regulatory shifts, and evolving political landscapes, what can we anticipate for XRP? Let’s delve deeper into our Ripple price forecast.
Is an XRP ETF on the Horizon?
In light of ongoing volatility and significant advancements, XRP has maintained its presence in the spotlight.
A pivotal moment transpired on February 13, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission officially recognized a filing from the New York Stock Exchange and Grayscale Investments for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund.
The proposal details a strategy to convert Grayscale’s existing $16.1 million XRP Trust into a fully tradeable ETF, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company serving as the custodian and BNY Mellon managing administrative responsibilities.
The SEC’s acknowledgment signifies that the review process has commenced, paving the way for a possible approval or rejection within a 240-day timeframe.
The first critical deadline is in mid-March, initiating a 45-day review period. Subsequently, the SEC can either render a decision or extend the schedule, with a conclusive verdict anticipated by mid-October 2025.
However, Grayscale isn’t the sole company advocating for an XRP ETF. The Chicago Board Options Exchange has also submitted a 19b-4 application for Bitwise’s XRP ETF, with additional companies seeking approval. Unlike Grayscale, which aims to convert an existing trust into an ETF, Bitwise is proposing a brand-new fund.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently addressed the challenges and progress regarding XRP ETF applications. He acknowledged that while earlier submissions have experienced starts and stops, with some companies retracting their applications, the fact that multiple issuers are now reapplying suggests the SEC is at least inclined to entertain these ETFs.
Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, noting that although approval may take time, the SEC appears increasingly willing to engage in discussions regarding these products.
He also pointed out a significant distinction between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold; those assets had regulated futures markets prior to their ETF approvals, whereas XRP lacks such a market.
While a futures market is not essential for XRP ETFs, it could play a crucial role in the approval process.
What makes these applications particularly intriguing is the ongoing legal dispute between Ripple and the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, claiming that XRP had been sold as an unregistered security.
Ripple achieved a partial victory in August 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. Nevertheless, regulatory uncertainty remains, complicating the ETF approval process for XRP compared to spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum ETFs.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, highlighted the irony of the situation — while the SEC is engaged in litigation with Ripple, it is simultaneously reviewing an ETF that would include XRP. Geraci referred to this as an “enormous message,” suggesting a possible shift in the SEC’s stance regarding XRP.
Adding to the excitement, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated a 65% chance of XRP ETF approval by the conclusion of 2025.
XRP’s Defining Moment Approaches
XRP is facing a defining moment as it nears a resistance level that has historically influenced its trajectory.
In the last two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a critical area that consistently dictates whether XRP will experience a major rally or remain in consolidation.
On January 16, XRP peaked at $3.39, but that attempt to advance faltered. Then, on February 3, XRP plummeted 43% to $1.94 as global markets reacted to Trump’s tariff threats, resulting in one of the most considerable selloffs in crypto history.
Despite the tumult, XRP has rebounded and is once again approaching the same resistance level, setting the stage for another breakout attempt.
Beyond the short-term fluctuations, a significant development is on the horizon. XRP is closing in on completing a rounding bottom pattern that has been forming since 2018 — a structure that has taken almost seven years to establish.
If XRP reclaims its all-time high of $3.89, the rounding bottom pattern will be deemed complete, marking the end of a prolonged accumulation phase. At that point, XRP would enter price discovery, meaning there would be no historical resistance to hinder it.
The pressing question remains: what will trigger the ultimate breakthrough? Broader market conditions currently do not fully support this, as Bitcoin has yet to establish a new all-time high and liquidity remains confined to a limited number of assets.
A major potential catalyst is ETF approval. Should the SEC authorize an XRP ETF, institutional demand could soar, pushing prices past resistance levels due to heightened trading volume.
Another critical factor is strategic adoption — if XRP is integrated into a financial system reserve or secures a significant institutional use case, this surge in demand could propel it into new territories.
The final wildcard is the SEC lawsuit appeal. A dismissal of the appeal could bring legal clarity, instigating a wave of purchasing activity.
With bated breath, many are waiting to see if XRP can finally break through or if it will experience a déjà vu moment. The forthcoming attempt to exceed $3.50 could be one of the most consequential in its history.
XRP Price Forecast: Is History on the Verge of Repeating?
XRP’s 2017 bull run serves as a significant reference point, with various indicators suggesting that XRP is echoing the setup that preceded its meteoric rise.
One compelling bullish argument comes from Egrag Crypto, who highlights the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator employed to assess whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish trend.
“Presently, we’re positioned above the BMSB,” he remarks, noting that he had projected XRP would retrace to this level even when it was priced at $3.40. A successful retest of this support could indicate that the market is gathering momentum for its next move.
Egrag draws comparisons to 2017, when XRP followed a nearly identical trajectory. He notes that back then, XRP nearly approached the BMSB, preceding a 1,500% increase in just four weeks, targeting the Fib 1.618 level.
Fibonacci levels are commonly applied in technical analysis to forecast price movements, and in 2017, XRP’s breakout adhered to this precise pattern. Should history repeat, Egrag anticipates a 1,500% escalation to $27.
Taking this further, Javon Marks emphasizes how XRP’s recent price trends resemble its 2017 breakout. Prices recently approached the all-time high as a resistance level, much as they did in 2017 before advancing beyond it. Marks’ new secondary target is set at $99, a staggering 3,900% gain from current prices.
In addition to Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave theory suggests considerable potential for XRP. Dark Defender has been analyzing XRP’s wave structure since July 2023, when the price hovered around 40 to 50 cents.
According to his analysis, XRP is currently in Wave 4 of the Intermediate Cycle, with Wave 5 aiming for $5.85. His Primary Cycle Waves indicate a major upside target of $18.22.
“I’ve employed the same structure since July 2023, and it has been consistently reliable,” Dark Defender states, implying that XRP has consistently adhered to this pattern. If his wave count is accurate, XRP could be on the brink of completing a pivotal cycle.
Nevertheless, large-scale breakouts don’t occur in isolation. XRP still confronts formidable resistance within the $3.15 to $3.50 range, necessitating a significant catalyst to breach it.
For traders seeking to capitalize on this setup, risk management is essential. Implementing stop-loss orders can help mitigate losses in the event of rejection, and avoiding excessive leverage is crucial as abrupt pullbacks could result in liquidation.
However, nothing is guaranteed in the crypto market. The same indicators that imply explosive potential can also falter under shifting market conditions. Trade prudently, manage
