Is the Gold Market Pivoting Towards Selling?

The tension between Iran and Israel has dissipated following U.S. intervention, resulting in a decline in safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Currently, the gold market sentiment is leaning towards selling; however, a pullback is expected this week towards key levels that traders might view as opportunities for additional sell positions. Let’s examine the essential pivot levels for trading gold in this weekly forecast from June 30th to July 4th, 2025.

Key Economic Events of This Week

This week, a series of significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release, which could influence XAUUSD.

Tue, Jul 1 – Remarks by Fed Chair Powell, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings

• Powell’s speech may create volatility; hawkish statements could weigh on gold prices, while dovish remarks may weaken the USD and support gold.
• Despite the ISM Manufacturing PMI slightly exceeding forecasts, it still reflects contraction, providing limited support for gold.
• Stronger labor market insights, highlighted by a rise in JOLTS job openings, might curb gold’s upward potential.

Wed, Jul 2 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

A strong ADP employment report (105K vs. 37K) suggests labor market robustness. Renewed rate hike expectations could bolster the USD, putting pressure on gold.

Thu, Jul 3 – Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI

• Gold may benefit from weaker NFP (120K vs. 139K) and slower wage growth (0.3% vs. 0.4%), indicating easing pressures on labor and inflation.
• Increasing unemployment (4.3% vs. 4.2%) further supports this perspective.
• If the ISM Services PMI shows weaknesses, gold could gain upward momentum amid fears of economic slowdown.

Read more: XAUUSD weekly forecast: Is $3600 the next target for gold?

Gold HTF Overview

As June concludes, the monthly close may play a pivotal role in shaping July’s gold price trajectory. The price has already reached the high of May 2025, with a potential drop to $3122 looming. A red monthly close could lead gold to $3122, while a strong bullish close may push it back to test $3441.

XAUUSD 1m chart – Source: Tradingview

Gold Forecast for June 30th to July 4th, 2025

The optimal area for shorting gold lies between the $3320-3337 level, which acts as the POC, breaker block, and the golden fib level on the 3-hour timeframe.

XAUUSD 3h chart – Source: Tradingview

The nearest level for selling on the 30m gold chart is at $3301-3313. Here, the price has broken through its support and is now acting as resistance.

XAUUSD 30m chart – Source: Tradingview

Significant purchasing in gold is expected from the $3232-$3202 level, recognized as a 4-hour order block and FVG in gold.

XAUUSD 4h chart – Source: Tradingview

Read more: Goldman Sachs abandons recession forecast as Trump pauses tariffs

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

In summary, gold presents opportunities for both buying and selling this week. Lower time frames indicate sell signals, while higher time frames continue to suggest buy positions.

Resistance Levels

• $3301-3313 – support turned resistance
• $3320-3337 – POC, breaker block, and golden fib level

Support Levels

• $3232-$3202 – 4h order block and FVG