Bitcoin’s Rise: Analysts Attribute It to Market Structure Over Fed Influence

Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent beyond $118,000 is not swayed by Federal Reserve policies or stock market trends. Analysts credit this astonishing growth to robust demand for spot ETFs and strategic decisions from corporate treasuries. Meanwhile, altcoins are also witnessing a noticeable uplift alongside BTC.

On July 11, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed its previous all-time high of $116,000, peaking at $118,872 before settling around $117,300, yielding a daily increase of 3%. Ethereum (ETH) took the lead, surging 7% and reclaiming the $3,000 milestone for the first time since February, while memecoins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) enjoyed double-digit escalations.

According to Thomas Perfumo, Kraken’s global economist, Bitcoin is “breaking a months-long range” and moving into new price discovery territory. He pointed out that over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated within the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin dominance slipping slightly—an unusual signal of altcoins gaining traction.

“In the meantime, the strength in U.S. equities, now trading at or near all-time highs, is demonstrating a robust risk-on environment, providing favorable support for crypto,” Perfumo noted in a statement obtained by crypto.news on Friday.

With Bitcoin dominance dropping to 54%, the market showcases a unique alignment where institutional accumulation and derivatives volatility are driving gains across the board, transcending just the top assets. The key question now isn’t whether macro factors hold significance, but whether the dynamics of the crypto market have truly detached from traditional influences.

Market structure, not macro, is steering the rally

This rally stands apart from previous ones due to its foundational elements. Analysts are not ascribing this surge to central banks or macroeconomic changes. Instead, they are concentrating on structural flows within the crypto market, notably the substantial impact of spot ETF demand.

On Thursday, Bitcoin ETFs reported their largest single-day inflows for 2025, gathering $1.18 billion, according to SoSoValue data. Ethereum ETFs also performed admirably, with inflows of $383 million, marking their second-best performance of the year. These investments aren’t just speculative futures or proxy trades through microcap equities; they represent significant, direct commitments to spot assets.

Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, views the breakout through this lens.

“This isn’t a macro-driven rally, but rather a unique occurrence. Nonetheless, recent U.S. policy changes, including fiscal expansion and anticipated further monetary easing, have created a backdrop that is undeniably supportive for Bitcoin. We are witnessing an uptick in Bitcoin treasury strategies among companies, reflecting growing institutional confidence in BTC as a balance sheet asset,” he stated in a comment sent to crypto.news.

Sondergaard emphasized that Bitcoin’s decisive breakthrough through crucial liquidation levels, and its ability to remain above them, has acted as a catalyst for this latest broad market rally.

The future trajectory hinges on sustainability. Previous rallies were supported by macroeconomic factors. This current trend is testing whether the internal mechanisms of crypto, such as ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and derivatives markets, can independently sustain valuations. If they succeed, we may be witnessing the birth of a new market paradigm where crypto sets its own rules.