Templegate’s 12-1 Arc de Triomphe Pick: Top 1-2-3 Predictions and Comprehensive Runner-by-Runner Analysis for the Longchamp Clash
If the Melbourne Cup is the race that grabs the attention of a nation, then the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is surely the event that captivates an entire continent.
Let’s also give a nod to Japan!
1
Credit: AFP
Even though Japan has yet to secure a victory in this prestigious Group 1 race at Longchamp in Paris, they are making a commendable three-horse bid this year.
Nevertheless, strong contenders from France, along with fierce competitors from Britain and Ireland, are in the mix.
The draw is complete, final preparations are set, and now it’s time for Templegate to help you identify a potential winner.
Below, he assesses each horse and assigns ratings from one to five stars—one for the least favorable and five for the most.
He reveals his top selection for the 3.05pm race and provides a 1-2-3 prediction at the end.
Additionally, you can check out his picks for all the major races happening in the French capital.
Templegate’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-by-runner analysis
GIAVELLOTTO 2
A lot to accomplish. Stays well and performs across different surfaces but requires improvement in this competitive setting.
Will likely deliver a solid performance, although challenging opponents await.
WHITE BIRCH 2
WHITE out. Achieved a Group 1 victory at The Curragh last year, but form has declined this season.
This distance is favorable, but softer ground would be advantageous. Appears vulnerable against stronger rivals.
ARROW EAGLE 1
BALD Eagle. Made early gains this season with wins in France but struggled in the Prix Foy last outing.
Although he stays at this distance, he seems to be a bit shy of this level of competition.
SOSIE 4
SO good. A leading French Group 1 performer with victories in the Prix Ganay and Ispahan, finishing close second in the Prix Foy.
Handles various conditions well, has a distance advantage, and is poised to match last year’s fourth-place finish.
LOS ANGELES 2
LOS cause. Ballydoyle colt with Group 1 wins at Curragh this year and performed well last year.
Seems to have regressed lately and is likely limited to a place finish at best.
BYZANTINE DREAM 5
A DREAM fulfilled. Japanese contender in top form after a hard-fought victory in the Prix Foy.
Shows stamina and speed, excels on any ground, and appears prepared to make a notable impact despite an unfavorable draw.
QUISISANA 3
QUIS has solutions. An improving mare on a five-win streak after a dominating victory in the Prix Jean Romanet recently.
Versatile with ground conditions and stays well at 12f but faces a significant class boost today. An outsider that may perform well but is unlikely to win.
KALPANA 3
HOT Pan. A consistent filly with an impressive second place in the King George, proven over 12f, and capable on all surfaces.
Needs to recover from a lackluster prior performance but shouldn’t be overlooked as an each-way possibility.
AVENTURE 4
A winning TURE. Last year’s Arc runner-up and a multiple Group winner this season, recently clinching the Vermeille.
Proven performer here, stays strong, remains reliable, and is likely to deliver an outstanding performance again.
DARYZ 3
DAR may emerge. An up-and-coming colt with a flawless spring and a close second in a recent Group 3.
Bred for success at this distance, still improving, but this might be a year too early.
LEFFARD 3
ARD to overlook. Grand Prix de Paris winner, and better than his sixth place in the Prix Niel suggests.
Strong at this distance and adaptable to conditions. Could sneak into contention with more improvement.
CUALIFICAR 4
CAR powers ahead. Recently acquired the Prix Niel with a solid performance on this trip.
Lightly raced and still progressing, a major French contender if he can deliver another career-best effort under Buick’s guidance.
HOTAZHELL 1
COLD on Hot. Last year’s Futurity Trophy winner now facing a tough debut over 1m4f.
Respected connections, but it would be unexpected for him to compete at this level.
CROIX DU NORD 4
NORD star. Japanese Derby champion at this distance, narrowly defeating Daryz last time.
This distance suits him better and he adapts to ground conditions well. Strong form could put him close, although stall 17 is a concern.
ALOHI ALII 2
ALII untested. Impressive Group 2 winner at Deauville over 1m2f recently.
Progressing but untested beyond that distance. His pedigree indicates he might excel, though the Arc presents a substantial challenge.
MINNIE HAUK 4
HAUK a standout. Exceptional filly unbeaten this year, with victories in the Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks.
Handles this distance well, adaptable to various ground conditions, and continues to strengthen. A formidable competitor with a favorable draw and weight advantage over male rivals.
GEZORA 3
GE whizz. French Oaks winner who finished a solid second in the Vermeille recently behind Aventure.
Proven at this distance, she’s adaptable to any ground. Needs to raise her performance but holds a chance for a placing.
Templegate’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe pick and 1-2-3 forecast
BYZANTINE DREAM could finally fulfill Japan’s Arc dreams.
This racing-enthusiastic nation has yet to triumph in Europe’s premier event, but this four-year-old is showing promise after a determined win in the Prix Foy.
He excels on various ground conditions and connections have wisely retained Oisin Murphy, which could be pivotal.
Although his draw may not be perfect, winning from an outer position is certainly plausible.
Moreover, Minnie Hauk, backed by the Ballydoyle giants and unbeaten this season with an Oaks hat-trick, presents a significant threat due to her weight allowance.
Aventure, last year’s runner-up, returns in prime form following a Vermeille win and typically performs well here.
Japan also has high hopes with Croix Du Nord, who boasts strong domestic performance and has navigated the track well when overcoming a solid each-way contender, Daryz.
Sosie also appears to offer value, while Cualificar stands as another promising challenger for esteemed trainer Andre Fabre.
1st Byzantine Dream
2nd Minnie Hauk
3rd Aventure
Templegate’s Longchamp recommendations
TAMFANA is poised to regain form in the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera (3.50).
Trainer David Menuisier has taken a conservative approach with this four-year-old, who previously won the Sun Chariot at this level last year.
She closed her three-year-old season strongly with a solid third in the QEII Stakes and seemed primed for another successful year.
Things haven’t proceeded as planned; following a promising second in the Sandown Mile, she underperformed in the Lockinge and has not raced since that May outing.
Now returning at 1m2f, a distance where she finished second in the French Oaks on her only attempt, some ground cut would also be advantageous.
If she regains her best form, she will contend with the main rival See The Fire, who did not meet expectations at York last time.
MORE THUNDER looks ready for a Group 1 breakthrough in the Foret (4.25).
William Haggas’ colt has consistently demonstrated his superiority above the handicap ranks, showcasing his potential with a comfortable Group 2 victory at Newbury in August after a Bunbury Cup win.
He has since rested since that impressive performance, making this an excellent opportunity at the top level.
He possesses a favorable draw and excels at this 7f distance.
Early on the card, JM JUNGLE stands out as a solid each-way bet in the L’Abbaye (1.50).
The Quinn family won this race two years ago and has a strong chance with this five-year-old, who has had a successful season.
He triumphed in the Dash at Epsom on Derby day and performed commendably in competitive fields at York.
He has returned to winning form, capturing the King George at Goodwood and close to that level again with a near miss in the Nunthorpe last time.
He adapts well to ground conditions and will be competitive.
While local winners may be scarce on Arc day, NIGHTTIME (1.15) has a solid chance for Christopher Head.
He has steadily improved, following a Listed victory at Deauville with a commendable Group 3 win over this course and distance last month.
With minimal race mileage, he just needs a bit more effort to surpass O’Brien hopeful Puerto Rico and likely favorite Rayif in Aga Khan colors.
FREE BETS – ACCESS THE BEST SIGN-UP DEALS AND RACING OFFERS
Commercial content notice: Selecting one of the offers mentioned in this article may result in a payment to The Sun. Note that brands may compensate for enhanced placements on the page. 18+. T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org.
Remember to gamble responsibly
A responsible gambler is one who:
- Sets limits on time and money before gambling
- Only bets what they can afford to lose
- Never chases losses
- Avoids gambling when upset, angry, or depressed
- Gamcare – www.gamcare.org.uk
- Gamble Aware – www.gambleaware.org
Find our detailed guide on responsible gambling practices here.
