Trump Cautions Iran About Significant Repercussions If Agreement Is Not Reached Quickly

President Donald Trump cautioned that he might soon restart strikes on Iran as part of his efforts to finalize a deal aimed at ending the conflict, following his announcement that a US attack was recently called off.

“I hope we don’t have to go to war, but we might need to deliver another serious blow,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday. When inquired about the timeline, he responded: “Well, I’m thinking about two or three days, possibly Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Maybe something early next week — a limited timeframe.”

Trump’s statements have renewed the possibility of escalating tensions with Iran, which has so far refused to meet Trump’s demands to eliminate the remaining parts of its nuclear program after weeks of strikes that commenced in late February. Nevertheless, the president has consistently signaled — and then abstained from — renewed military action since the ceasefire was established on April 8.

The conflict has hindered access to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas transportation, resulting in a spike in global energy prices and inflation. Yields on the US Treasury’s long-term bonds reached their highest levels in nearly two decades due to worries about the macroeconomic effects of the conflict in the Middle East.

During a Tuesday afternoon speech, Vice President JD Vance offered a more hopeful view on the negotiations, while also alluding to the possibility of renewed strikes. “We think we’ve made significant strides, and that the Iranians are eager to reach a deal,” he stated, adding that “option B” would be to resume military actions.

“But that’s not the president’s preference,” he continued. “And I don’t believe that’s what the Iranians are aiming for either.”

Despite suffering losses of numerous senior leaders and a substantial portion of its military strength due to US and Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s government has shown resilience, frustrating US officials by retaining control over Hormuz, which has driven fuel prices in the US to their highest levels in nearly four years.

On Monday, Trump revealed he had delayed a planned attack on Iran, which was set for Tuesday, at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The president has pointed to requests from allies and partners, including mediator Pakistan, as factors influencing his policy shifts regarding the Iran conflict.

Brent crude oil prices fell about 1% on Tuesday, trading above $110 per barrel following Trump’s announcements late Monday. The benchmark has still risen by over 50% since the onset of the conflict with US-Israeli strikes on Iran, keeping traders alert to the potential for renewed hostilities.

Shipments through Hormuz have dwindled once again, although traders are closely watching whether the NATO alliance will step in to ensure safe passage for vessels if the waterway is not reopened by early July.

While Trump’s remarks usually sway financial markets regarding Iran, market analysts have noted that this effect seems to be lessening, as the president frequently makes threats that he does not follow through on.

“These verbal assertions from Trump used to trigger a substantial bearish reaction in prices, but their impact now appears to be waning, unless they are accompanied by action,” remarked Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “From what we can see, no real progress has been made in negotiations between the US and Iran, with both sides firmly holding onto their prior demands.”

The fragility of the ceasefire was underscored on Sunday when a drone struck the UAE’s Barakah nuclear energy plant, igniting a fire at the facility and necessitating the use of emergency generators.

The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog announced late Monday that normal operations had resumed at Barakah, alleviating safety concerns regarding the largest atomic facility in the Middle East.

Tehran has indicated it may launch strikes against its Gulf neighbors again if the US resumes its military actions.

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